Monday, April 25, 2011

It's a wrap folks. Read this


RR said...


While I agree with Arends that the Age of America will be over soon, I disagree that China will become the reigning global hegemon. Sure, America has many long terms problems (unrestricted immigration, public debt, Wall St socialism, the Federal Reserve, massive immigration, education bubble, housing crisis, too many foreigners) that will require drastic action, but our problems are remediable. China's problems are much more systemic. Their command economy is not sustainable. They have built a number of virtually empty cities just to keep their GDP numbers looking good. Due to their government's inflationary monetary policies (and the US government's inflationary policies) the average Chinese citizen is paying more than 50% of his wages on food. And they have a female shortage. No. China may be the big kid in Asia for the foreseeable future, but a hyper-power? I don't think so. Besides, being a hyper-power isn't what it's cracked up to be.

Keith said...

It looks more likely that there won't be an actual hegemon at all. China, India, and Brazil will rise in influence, but each of them has serious problems. China's planning model looks more unsustainable as their economy grows more complex. India has to find a way to trim down their massive bureaucracy while simultaneously making wise investments in infrastructure. Brazil's a resource powerhouse but has proportionally more personal debt than the U.S. at the top of the housing bubble.

Chic Noir said...

good comments rr and keith.

RR, I think the article was going about the GDP only.